OPEC Achieves Balancing Act But Industry Risks Long-Term Undersupply
Co-ordinated production reduction led by OPEC and supported by eleven non-OPEC oil-producing states has led to significant changes to the near-term outlook for the oil & gas sector worldwide. DW forecasts a balanced market in 2017, though a return to an oversupply in 2018 is likely due to the implementation of projects sanctioned before the downturn. Offshore oil production is expected to peak in 2019, leading to an undersupplied market in the early 2020s. This situation is expected regardless of OPEC members’ compliance with output adjustments in the near-term.
Within the country analysis, major changes have been seen in the forecasts with OPEC’s member nations as well as certain non-OPEC countries also participating in production cuts. Additionally, Libya’s outlook has been upgraded after its National Oil Company gained control of key ports. In the USA, onshore production is set to resume growth in 2017 due to improving investor confidence in the country’s shale plays. This quarter’s edition also sees the addition of Guyana and Uganda to the report coverage, as both countries start production from their first developments early next decade. Through to 2023 and utilising a proprietary methodology, DWD&P provides data analysis on 66 key countries, offering near-total historic and forecast volumes of hydrocarbon production and wells drilled, onshore and offshore.
Based on detailed models, the report examines each country in turn and includes a summary of hydrocarbon potential and sensitised production outlook, with associated development drilling requirements segmented into oil & gas for the onshore sector and shallow vs. deep water depths for the offshore sector. Country-by-country exploration and appraisal (E&A) drilling forecasts for both the onshore and offshore sectors are also detailed.
The World Drilling & Production Market Forecast contains:
- Drilling & production data– generated in-house through models exclusive to DW, we assess the prospects of 66 countries and determine historic, current and potential future production and associated development well-drilling requirements: oil & gas, onshore & offshore, exploration and appraisal (E&A) drilling and offshore; deep and shallow water.
- Detailed analysis– summary level overview analysis and market commentary provided at country-level alongside data and forecasts. Identification of sensitised scenarios used to drive drilling forecasts.
- Field-level forecasts– The majority of production forecasts are built up using a field-by-field methodology using DW’s in-house upstream database.
- Full global coverage– the only product on the market able to provide such a level of granularity and confidence on the drilling and production market.
- Long-term outlook– a seven-year forecast from 2017 to 2023 provides a medium-term perspective on development drilling & production opportunities.
- Hindcast– annual data back to 2007 enables examination of each country’s long-term D&P trends.
- Comprehensive experience– gained from 25 years of research. This product has been developed through exposure to industry-leading international M&A engagements including numerous diligence exercises conducted for oilfield services, equipment and drilling organisations worldwide, including those in opaque or less-publicised markets such as China, the Middle East and Russia.
- Dynamic– an ongoing process, DWD&P research is updated continuously, allowing for regular updates and detailed knowledge of each country’s hydrocarbon activity and potential.
- Independent– through a refined methodology, this product does not rely on one source of external data, but uses a considered approach to derive historic, current and future views on each and every one of the 66 countries.
- Highly flexible– we believe that this product provides unrivalled segmentation of data / forecasts, but we are able to provide further detailed segmentation, grouping or analysis – including scenario comparison.
- Contact us for analyst support– through our network of global offices, we can provide further insight through local analysts.
- Quarterly updates– for the highest level of accuracy, a subscription option is available for quarterly reports, but we also offer one-time purchase of the last released version.