Changing Expectations in the Oilfield Equipment Sector
The Q4 edition of Westwood’s World Oilfield Equipment Market Forecast has been released this week, with downward revisions to the near-term expenditure outlook for the sector. Westwood has tempered drilling growth expectations in the US onshore space in the last three months, resulting in a -0.6% reduction in forecast North America spend this quarter. However, improvements in the floating production system market have boosted 2021 Capex prospects.
Global Oilfield Equipment Expenditure by Region 2012-2021
- Global expenditure of $608bn over 2017-2021
- Improvement in growth outlook with 2% CAGR over forecast.
- North America to account for 48% of total onshore spend.
- E&P related spend to total $457bn, 75% of forecast expenditure – driven by production related expenditures and sustained oversupply in service company dominated markets.
- $1bn uplift in Fixed & Floating Production Capex on last quarter.
Westwood’s World Oilfield Equipment Market Forecast Q4 2017-2021 shows continued troubles in the oilfield equipment sector, with global expenditure expected to total $608bn over the forecast period. Despite a tempering of near-term US onshore expectations given a slowing in rig count growth in recent months, supply chain pressures on the completion side remain. Globally, a recovery in expenditure levels is anticipated and will result in an increase in CAGR compared to the last edition of the report (2% compared to 0.7%).
The offshore equipment sector has seen tentative improvements in sentiments through 2017, with a handful of high profile projects reaching final investment decision (FID). This has resulted in improvements in the floating production market, with a total of 70 units to be installed over 2017-2021 (compared to just 62 in the Q3 edition of the report). In the offshore rig space, however, the market remains heavily oversupplied, with minimal ordering expected over the next few years. Fewer jackups have been delivered in 2017 than originally expected, resulting in a reduction in total spending level for the market, given how Westwood phases expenditure over the period from order to delivery. Over the long-term, Westwood expects an improvement in ordering into the next decade for high spec deepwater rigs, due to expansions of activity beyond the traditional ‘golden triangle’ areas and into new frontiers. However, despite improving sentiments in the offshore space, Westwood still expects a -3% CAGR over 2017-2021 for offshore expenditure, due to a significantly smaller pool of projects in the pipeline than over recent years.
The World Oilfield Equipment Market Forecast offers unique insight into over 60 different equipment types across upstream and midstream and is an essential product for business planners and those looking to make informed investment decisions. Drawing from Westwood’s cutting edge SECTORS product and a wide-range of other internal databases (including land rigs, pipelines, helicopters and upstream infrastructure), the World Oilfield Equipment Market Forecast also takes account of the latest macro-economic trends through daily updated databases and explicit commodity price, global inflation and supply chain pressure inputs.
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