Drilling & Well Services expenditure to see 8% year-on-year growth over 2017-2021
The global DWS market is expected to see a sustained recovery over 2017-2021, led by a rebound in onshore US activity, according to Westwood Global Energy Group’s latest World Drilling & Well Services Market Forecast report.
- Total global expenditure over 2017-2021 is expected to amount to $1,103bn.
- Global onshore and offshore expenditure are forecast to rise at a 9% and 4% CAGR through to 2021, respectively.
- North America will account for 41% of global DWS expenditure over 2017-2021, marginally lower than over 2012-2016.
- The outlook for growth in offshore DWS expenditure over the forecast remains constrained, following a decline in rig day rates and reduced project sanctioning as a result of the downturn.
- Rig & crew services is expected to account for 29% of global DWS expenditure over 2017-2021, while expenditure for stimulation services will see the strongest growth over the forecast period.
- Average days to drill a well have generally declined through the downturn, both onshore and offshore.
Westwood Global Energy Group’s World Drilling & Well Services Market Forecast presents the latest view on prospects for one of the largest areas of total oilfield services expenditure. Total DWS expenditure over the 2017-2021 period is expected to amount to $1,103bn, representing a downward revision of 6% compared with the Q3 edition of the report.
Despite the pullback in US onshore rig count since August, Westwood is forecasting a strong recovery in drilling activity in North America over 2017-2021, with an associated expenditure CAGR of 15% through to 2021. This is in spite of large efficiency gains across the US sector which have reduced drilling times – on the order of -19% over 2013-2017 – and therefore drilling spend per well. However, completion expenditure is likely to be more buoyant, with stimulation expenditure in particular driving year-on-year increases in US onshore Capex over the forecast. While a downgrade in future US onshore drilling activity has been seen since the previous edition of the report, this has only amounted to a marginal change in expected growth rates through to 2021 (16% CAGR compared to 18% CAGR last quarter).
Outside of North America, international DWS expenditure over 2017-2021 is expected to total approximately $656bn, with a CAGR of 4% forecast over the same period. As with US onshore activity, drilling efficiency gains have been seen internationally, particularly offshore, where operators and drilling contractors alike are looking to reduce development Capex outlays. This has resulted in an approximate 5% global average decline in subsea drilling times over since 2013. These efficiency gains are likely to be either sustained or improved on into the forecast period, thereby maintaining downward pressures on international Drilling & Well Services Capex, alongside suppressed rig and spread rates across the global market.