Floating Production Systems to Begin Recovery in 2017 – Expenditure of $50bn over 2017-2021
The market for Floating Production Systems (FPS) has bottomed in 2016 (during which no orders were placed) and is poised for recovery in 2017. This is a function of both a recovery in oil prices but also lower industry costs and the re-engineering of projects
The latest World Floating Production Report is a market outlook built on granular ‘project-by-project’ analysis of over 130 potential future deployments. Many of the projects we are tracking have seen timelines slip both in terms of project sanctioning and execution. However, this year we have seen the hiatus in FPS ordering broken with the order of Mad Dog Phase 2 production platform. This is the first of a number of units expected to be ordered this year, from the large FPSO for Petrobras’ Libra field to much smaller leased units for fields offshore the UK, such as Hurricane Exploration’s Lancaster field.
When the Capex for each FPS unit is phased over the construction lifecycle there will be a 40% decline compared to the hindcast and a -6% CAGR between 2017 and 2021 – highlighting the impact of the downturn. Despite this, the value of units coming onstream over the forecast will reach record levels, totalling $50bn, though much of this will be seen in 2017-2018 as units that were ordered while prices were at record levels are commissioned.
Due to their versatility and wide-spread availability FPSOs will continue to represent the largest segment of the market both in terms of numbers (45 installations) and forecast Capex (84%) over the 2017-2021 period. FPSSs and TLPs will account for 10% and 8% of Capex respectively while Spars will account for 1%.
On a regional level Latin America will account for both the highest number of units (31% of forecast installations) and the highest amount of Capex (33%). Western Europe, Asia and Africa will all follow with 11, 10 and 9 installations respectively. Both Asia and Western Europe will see a lower proportion of expenditure than installations at 10% and 14% respectively. Africa however will account for 25% of Capex from its nine installations – demonstrating the high value of units in the region.
The World Floating Production System Market Forecast 2017-2021 analyses the factors influencing the global floating production market and utilises extensive industry consultation to provide detailed insight on demand and supply. Now in its 15th edition, the report is supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:
- Drivers & indicators – a review of factors influencing the floating production market including global energy demand; continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices; supply & demand; Brazilian activity; and the role of deepwater.
- Operator analysis – Capex for the leading FPS operators, historic, forecast and by region and water depth.
- The FPS supply chain – detailed analysis of the FPS supply chain, outlining the EPC firms, shipyards, lease contractors, topside fabricators and their respective capabilities.
- Leasing & financing – the issues and future outlook for financing of the sector; analysis of major leasing contractors, their assets and a review of prospective vessel redeployments.
- Regional analysis – with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.
- Floating production prospects – list of floating production systems due onstream over 2017-2021, including the following data: country, E&P operator, field, FPS name, prospective year, status of FPS, FPS type and moored water depth.
Why purchase the World Floating Production Market Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies, lease contractors, shipbuilders and agencies & government departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
- Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Detailed methodology – analysis is based on DW’s SECTORS database which details more than 700 FPS projects. The data feeds into the market model to generate forecasts of floating production systems in each region of the world. Expenditure is allocated both to year of order and year of installation.
- Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of floating production capital expenditure.
- Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.