Helicopter services market slowly returns to growth
Despite a turbulent time for most offshore sectors over the past two years, Douglas-Westwood’s (DW’s) latest analysis from the World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2017-2021 projects $18bn in oil & gas related expenditure over the next five years.
Since the oil price downturn, drilling and production activities have been falling across all regions, resulting in a 7% decrease in total oil & gas expenditure over the forecast period, compared to the preceding five-year period. This effect has been compounded by the significant cuts in capital expenditure in the last two years and the current lack of project sanctioning.
In spite of this, the current global fixed and floating platform population, coupled with existing drilling and production activities from projects sanctioned prior to the oil price downturn will continue to drive demand for helicopter support services. With developments moving further from shore, deepwater activity (>500m) continues to be another strong driver, which has remained relatively sheltered from the downturn due to longer project lead times. Consequently, over the 2017 to 2021 period, DW expects a 3% CAGR growth in global oil & gas helicopter expenditure.
Whilst projections for the coming five years are lower than previously anticipated in DW’s 2015 edition, the production support component of the market will remain more resilient to fluctuations in oil price compared to drilling. Passenger transfers to production assets will continue to account for the majority of spending, 60% on average between 2017 and 2021, as a large share of demand will arise from ongoing production phase support.
The coming years will remain an important time for the industry, as a new generation of medium-class helicopters, such as the H175 and AW189, have been introduced. These models have been developed to provide higher crew capacity, power and range for a number of industries. The new generation medium aircraft are highly efficient with advanced safety systems and are, therefore, expected to perform well in the offshore arena.
In the longer term, there is the prospect of high speed rotorcrafts entering the market. Leonardo’s AW609 is expected to be the first commercially available tiltrotor serving the offshore sector. Certification of the first AW609 is anticipated in 2018.
Following a serious helicopter crash in April 2016 in Norway, the H225 / EC225 Super Pumas remain grounded by the UK and Norwegian Civil Aviation Authorities. In its World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2017-2021, DW has analysed the impact of the potential removal of the H225 from the global helicopter fleet and the possible impact on utilisation of heavy aircraft. The most significant impact is likely to be seen in Western Europe.
For the first time in its World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2017-2021, DW presents analysis of the relevance and importance of the offshore wind industry on the offshore helicopters market. The majority of offshore wind spend is led by the Operation & Maintenance (O&M) segment, which is driven by the existing installed turbine population. The biggest portion of helicopter support expenditure for offshore wind applications is focused in Germany.
The World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2017-2021 presents a ‘bottom-up’ (asset-by-asset) analysis of the sector with extensive industry interviews with helicopter manufacturers, owners, managers, operators and leasing contractors to give a complete evaluation of current sector activity and expected development of the market.
This 3rd edition of the World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2017-2021 analyses the demand and supply for offshore helicopter support services across the oil & gas and offshore wind sectors. The report covers:
- Macro economic outlook – macroeconomics indicators driving offshore helicopter services expenditure including: energy consumption mix, oil supply-demand balance, development cost per barrel by development type and offshore production outlook.
- Offshore oil & gas drivers – offshore wells drilled, offshore fixed and floating platform population and offshore Maintenance, Modifications and Operations expenditure.
- Offshore wind drivers – offshore wind installations and population, evolution of helicopter use in the offshore wind industry, size evolution of wind turbines and hoisting requirements.
- Supply chain – this includes helicopter classification, contracting and tender processes, helicopter fleet positioning, competitive landscape, helicopter deliveries and a review of key manufacturers.
- Offshore oil & gas market forecast – analysis of offshore oil & gas expenditure by helicopter size, life cycle segment and region, as well as supply and demand dynamics by size and region (including Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe) from 2017 to 2021.
- Offshore wind market forecast – offshore wind helicopter expenditure by life cycle and country (including China, Denmark, Germany, the UK and the Rest of the World).
Why purchase the World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
DW has developed a proprietary model of offshore oil & gas and offshore wind helicopter expenditure, which are based on inputs from our in-house project and drilling data, coupled with industry insight gained over nearly 25 years of industry consulting. This has included engagements across the globe for many of the largest helicopter owners, operators and manufacturers. This collective insight is now available as a published research product.
- Unique and proprietary data – updated continually from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Methodology – the report uses research from DW’s in-house databases, as well as further primary research, which involved consultations with E&P companies, helicopter operators and helicopter OEMs to obtain the latest information on the offshore helicopters market.
- Market forecasts – comprehensive examination, analysis and five-year coverage of expenditure levels, supply and demand from 2017 to 2021.
- Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.
- An essential report – for financial institutions, E&P companies, helicopter leasing companies, operators and OEMs, as well as agencies and organisations engaged in the offshore logistics supply chain. DW reports are expressly designed to help organisations to gain a better understanding of where and when to make investment decisions.