Offshore Wind Update: Total Capex forecast at €396bn over 2017-2026
Westwood’s most recent edition of the Word Offshore Wind Market Forecast is now available. The UK is expected to remain a key contributor to the market, accounting for 18GW in additional capacity over 2017-2026 (exclusive of projects at the concept and speculative stages). Notably, as the current update of the report was being finalised, the results of the latest UK CfD (contract for difference) were announced, with two projects (Hornsea 2 and Moray Offshore) securing CfDs at a strike price of £57.50/MWh, and a third (Triton Knoll) securing a price of £74.75/MWh. When compared to the average strike price of £117/MWh in the previous auction, and award to the Hinkley Point C nuclear project at £92.50/MWh, this is illustrative of the significant reduction in the cost of generating renewable energy.
- Total Capex over 2017-2026 is expected to amount to €396bn.
- Global cumulative capacity is expected to increase from 17.8 GW in 2017 to 95.2 GW by 2026*.
- The UK, China, and Germany will be the key contributors to the market, with combined expenditure of €208bn over 2017-2026. This represents approximately 52% of forecast global expenditure over the same period*.
- Global Opex over 2017-2026 is expected to amount to €65bn, with approximately 64% of this allocated to China, Germany, and the UK*.
- Westwood expects approximately 14,500 turbines and more than 15,900 foundations to be installed over 2017-2026.
*All figures are inclusive of projects yet to develop past conceptual phases.
Since the Q2 2017 edition of the report, Westwood has made revisions to the projected construction and online years for a number of projects. Notably, in China, construction has commenced at the 400 MW Binhai North H2 projecy, currently expected to be fully commissioned by the end of 2017. In Germany, the 402 MW Veja Mate project was commissioned in May 2017, becoming operational four months ahead of schedule. Since the Q2 edition of the report, the status of Estonia’s 900 MW Hiiumaa project has been updated from ‘concept’ to ‘possible’, following the signature of a binding co-operation agreement for the construction of the project in August 2017. Subsequently, Estonia is now expected to be the largest contributor in terms of additional capacity installed in the Rest of the World over 2017-2026.
Westwood’s report features an in-depth Capex analysis – including component breakdown – and country-specific commentary, reflecting on announced renewables obligations. Tracking the industry on a project by project basis, Westwood offers a comprehensive view on the significant opportunities for the wind supply chain over the next decade. Given the increased focus on renewables, the industry will continue to attract investment from utilities and large engineering and service contractors, as well as upstream oil and gas companies.
- Key Drivers and Indicators
- Global to Country Capex and Opex Market Forecasts
- Segment Market Forecasts
- Project Listings
For more details on this and forecast changes, please contact Gareth Hector on;
Gareth Hector email@example.com or call +44 (0)1795 594 726