Global LNG expenditure forecast at $312bn as market enters second wave of capacity expansion
The global LNG industry has entered a period of significant transformation. After several years of subdued investment following the oil price collapse of 2014, the sector is now poised for renewed growth. Rising Asian demand — particularly from China, India, and emerging Southeast Asian economies — is reshaping trade flows and supporting the case for new liquefaction and regasification capacity worldwide.
Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasts global LNG capital expenditure to total $312 billion over 2018-2022. US Gulf Coast projects account for approximately 28% of forecast liquefaction spend, as a wave of mid-scale and brownfield expansions move toward final investment decisions. Australia's contribution is expected to decline from the peak levels seen in 2016-2017 as the massive Gorgon, Wheatstone, and Ichthys projects near completion and begin ramping up production.
Regasification infrastructure continues to expand rapidly. Floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) have emerged as the preferred route to market for new gas-importing nations. Over the forecast period, an estimated 18 new countries are expected to access LNG imports for the first time, with Bangladesh, Pakistan, and several West African nations among the most notable additions. FSRU Capex is forecast to total $24bn between 2018 and 2022.
The LNG carrier fleet is also set for expansion. Current orderbooks and anticipated demand growth suggest that approximately 120 new-build carriers will be required over the next five years, with the majority being 170,000-180,000 cubic metre vessels equipped with slow-speed diesel or X-DF propulsion systems.
Downside risks remain. Trade policy uncertainty, the pace of Chinese coal-to-gas switching, and the potential for further delays at several greenfield projects in Mozambique and Canada could weigh on realised expenditure. Conversely, stronger-than-expected winter demand in Northeast Asia or accelerated sanctioning of next-wave Qatar projects could push spending above our base-case estimate.
The World LNG Market Forecast 2018-2022 analyses expenditure across the full LNG value chain and includes:
- Market Drivers and Trends — global gas demand growth, emissions policy tailwinds, security-of-supply dynamics, and the rise of portfolio players.
- Liquefaction Capacity — project-by-project assessment of sanctioned and prospective trains, with Capex phased by construction timeline. Coverage spans greenfield, brownfield, and mid-scale facilities.
- Regasification and Import Terminals — land-based and floating (FSRU) installations, with analysis of emerging market entry patterns and commissioning schedules.
- LNG Carrier Fleet — newbuild forecasts by size and propulsion type, redelivery schedules, and fleet utilisation trends.
- Capex Breakdowns — expenditure segmented by facility type (liquefaction, regasification, carriers), component, and service line. Regional splits for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East, and North America.
- Regional Analysis — dedicated chapters covering the eight core regions, each with market commentary, project listings, and five-year expenditure forecasts.
Why purchase the LNG Market Forecast?
Our market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms. Our proven process includes:
- Unique and proprietary data — compiled from published sources, direct industry engagement, and DW's in-house World LNG Projects Database, which tracks over 450 current and prospective facilities globally.
- Rigorous methodology — a project-by-project review of sanctioned and prospective developments drives a bottom-up expenditure model. Capital cost estimates are benchmarked against realised project outturns and adjusted for regional cost differentials.
- Actionable market intelligence — 5-year Capex forecasts segmented by region, facility type, and service line, enabling clients to identify where and when capital will be deployed.
- Concise, insight-led format — consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value, the report is structured around key findings, with speed-read summaries throughout.
- An essential resource — for operators, EPC contractors, shipbuilders, equipment suppliers, financial institutions, and policy bodies seeking to inform investment timing and strategic positioning.
