Sustained Low Oil Price Sinks Deepwater Projects, with 2016-2020 Deepwater Spend to Total $137 Billion
Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasts deepwater expenditure to total $137 billion (bn) between 2016 and 2020. This represents a 35% decline compared to DW’s previous edition of the deepwater forecast issued March 2015.
The prolonged low oil price has impacted the deepwater market, with operators considering alternative development options and delaying the sanctioning of new projects, whilst trying to protect returns on their existing investments in the sector. However, projects already under construction are unlikely to be affected. The largest proportion (38%) of the total spend will be attributed to drilling and completion. Subsea production equipment, SURF (subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines), pipelines and trunklines will represent 34% of total expenditure combined; whilst floating production units will account for 28% of spend over the forecast period.
Expenditure will predominantly be driven by Africa and the Americas, which will account for a combined 87% of total deepwater Capex. Though all regions will be adversely affected by low oil prices, projects that were sanctioned before the oil price downturn will help sustain activity levels in these regions and in addition we expect to see the development of East African gas basins towards the end of the forecast period.
Record levels of backlog established over the 2011-2014 period have somewhat insulated subsea hardware manufacturers from the oil price downturn. However, DW expects a further decline in subsea hardware installations in 2017 and 2018 with backlog falling rapidly and new orders trickling in at very low levels. We expect that the subsea OEM’s will feel the full impact of the downturn in 2016/2017 and will face strong competition for the lower volume of projects. In total, it is forecast that the number of deepwater wells to be drilled over the next five years will decline by 3% compared to the preceding five-year period.
From a supply-chain perspective, this point in the cycle is an opportunity to bring through new approaches and technology for deepwater developments to improve efficiency and lower cost. In the long run, we remain of the view that deepwater will be a cost competitive source of world-class hydrocarbon reserves.
DW’s 14th edition of the World Deepwater Market Forecast covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain in the deepwater sector:
- Key drivers – discussion of factors affecting deepwater activity, including: sustained low oil & gas prices; deepwater production to offset declining production from onshore and shallow water basins; E&P spend of international operators; and Petrobras’ activity in Brazil.
- Supply chain – detailing the financing of deepwater developments and local content issues. Includes analysis of contracting strategies (e.g. frame agreements), the deepwater drilling rig fleet and day rates, key players and capabilities of each sector within the deepwater market (drilling, FPS and subsea hardware).
- Procurement – factors affecting the decisions facing FPS operators, whether to lease or own vessels and details of major leasing contractors.
- Regional forecasts – forecast Capex within each region, including examples of notable projects and operators within the region and countries with most activity.
- Component forecasts – drilling and completion (subsea and surface completed wells), subsea production hardware, SURF, pipelines and trunklines and floating production.
- List of deepwater prospects – includes information on all identified prospects coming onstream from 2016 to 2020 by operator, location, water depth, number of trees, status category and onstream year.
Why purchase the World Deepwater Market Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore construction companies, drilling operators, oilfield services companies, shipbuilders and oil & gas companies wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
- Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Detailed methodology – the report uses research from DW’s ‘Deepwater Database’, an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of deepwater market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast.
- Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of deepwater expenditure.
- Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.