Subsea Vessel Operations and Hardware Expenditure Forecast to Total $141bn over the 2018-2022 Period
Westwood is forecasting subsea vessel operations and hardware expenditure to total $141.1bn over the 2018-2022 period. Following three weak years of order activity, the industry appears to be past the bottom of the cycle and has seen a 108% increase in greenfield project sanctioning offshore compared with 2016. This is supported by positive macro drivers in the near and long-term, albeit the recovery remains fragile and dependent on OPEC discipline.
Global Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Expenditure and Vessel Day Demand 2013-2022
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- Over the forecast period, 62% of expenditure will be focused on subsea hardware, with subsea vessels operations accounting for the remaining 38% of forecast expenditure.
- Subsea tree installation is forecast to grow at a 3% CAGR over the 2018-2022 period, driven by an expected increase in the number of projects passing FID over the next 18 months.
- The line pipe and pipelay sectors will account for 28% of total expenditure over the forecast.
- Westwood anticipates a significant volume of IMR activity to return to the market, with vessel-related IMR activity spend expected to total $19.8bn over the forecast, increasing at a 5% CAGR over 2018-2022.
- Total forecast vessel operations expenditure over 2018-2022 is expected to decline by 4% relative to the 2013-2017 period, while vessel day demand will increase by 7%, a function of supressed vessel day rates since 2014 levels.
- Overall, Westwood expects to see a gradual market recovery over the next five years, with an increase in FEED and tendering activities. However, a competitive pricing structure is expected to remain in the near-term, which will limit Capex growth.
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The World Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Market Forecast 2018-2022 is presented using Westwood’s proprietary database, with detailed insight on both the subsea hardware and vessel day demand by vessel type in 15 distinct countries & regions. This market forecast is based on a thorough scrutiny of data which enables the forecasts to be built on a project-by-project basis enabling us to consider various market conditions which further complement our detailed evaluation of market activity and anticipated market development.
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