Potential for €300 Billion of Offshore Wind Capital Expenditure over the Next Ten Years
Now in its sixth edition, the new Douglas-Westwood (DW) World Offshore Wind Market Forecast provides a ten year view of the sector through to 2024. Cumulative offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 57GW, driven by the continued development of established markets such as the UK, Germany and China and bolstered by emerging markets including the US and France.
Over 5.3GW of capacity is expected to be installed in 2015, with additions anticipated to remain on an upward trend, peaking at 7.5GW in 2020. Capital Expenditure will total €240 billion (bn) between 2015 and 2024. However, these figures only include projects which have passed the conceptual phase of development, resulting in a large potential for upside post-2020 totalling €60bn.
Capital costs have reduced recently, predominantly due to the larger sizes of turbines installed, resulting in less infrastructure (such as support structures) being required. This upsizing presents new challenges for installation contractors but should result in lower operational expenditures once wind farms become operational.
The UK will install more than 11GW over the next ten years, with most of this expected to occur by 2022, as Round 3 developments take place. Germany will also install over 11GW, with a longer term outlook predicting activity levels will recover in 2018 following a slowdown in 2016-17. China is expected to install over 8GW of capacity – this is lower than previously targeted, but still represents a strong growth market.
Emerging markets include countries such as the US and France, which are expected to have their first operational wind farms in 2015 and 2017 respectively. The US is expected to install 1.8GW of offshore capacity over the next decade, and France 3.2GW. Other emerging markets include countries with historically low levels of offshore wind activity, such as Sweden, Denmark and Belgium.
The report provides detailed market forecasts through to 2024 and is essential reading for companies working within the offshore wind sector. The report focuses on:
- Key drivers – a discussion of factors driving offshore wind installation activity including low carbon targets, rising energy demand and the need to replace power generation capacity.
- Commercial insights – including analysis of cost pressures on capital, life-time costs, risk factors and typical financing models.
- Technology review – analysis of R&D priority areas.
- Supply chain – a review of the main players, strengths & weaknesses of contracting strategies and supply chain development challenges.
- Ten-year market forecast – for new capacity, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, wind turbines, support structures, cabling, substations and vessels.
- Country analysis – detailed operational & capital expenditure forecast, including by capacity and segment analysis.
Why Purchase the World Offshore Wind Market Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
The report is essential for companies working within the offshore wind sector, wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
- Industry consultation – discussion with a wide-range of companies including: project developers, equipment manufacturers, and installation contractors. Throughout the report we highlight pertinent quotes, related to specific aspects of the market.
- Unique and proprietary data – detailed by project in our in-house databases. Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Detailed methodology – our forecast provides a ‘medium-case’ scenario for market activity, drawn from our databases, which enables the forecasts to be established on a project-by-project basis; taking into account factors such as project size, location, financial backing and progress to date.
- Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year forecast of offshore wind expenditure.
- Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.